a) If they move up the list at the current pace how long until they are No. 15?
No. of spots moved: 46-32 = 14
Time spent on wait list: 8 months
14/8 = 1.75 spots per month
32-15 = 17
17/1.75 = 10 months.
They will be No. 15 in January 2011.
(are you kidding me?)
b) If the pace doubles from this point forward, how long until they are No. 15?
32 (current spot)-15 = 17
17/3.5 = 5 months
They will be No. 15 in August 2010.
(I can handle that)
32-10 = 22
22/3.5 = 6 months
They will be No. 10 in September 2010.
(ok)
d) If they need to be at spot No. 10 to have a snowball's chance in hell of being profiled to expectant parents and the pace stays the same, how long until they are No. 10?
32-10 = 22
22/1.75 = 12.5 months
They will be No. 10 in March 2011.
(areyoufuckingkiddingme?)
I hate math.
Ohhh, those are really hard numbers to look at. My hubs and I are trying to be fost/adopt parents and so we don't even have a list. Ugghh. I hate math too!!!
ReplyDeleteI hope everything goes your way and you move faster up the list.
Math sucks. But what math doesn't take into account is the fact that things can change in an instant, and sheer luck - you just never know what can happen. (coming from someone who had a bunch of stuff happen that "should not have" happened). Let's hope it works IN your favor, soon!
ReplyDeleteI love your brain! This is what my brain did during the wait as well, which is the worst part of being on a list. I wish I could find a baby for you somehow. I'm soo sooo sorry the wait is so long. This is why I'm playing the lotto to get on the list for #2. It's pretty astounding how long everything takes. One thing I have noticed is that it goes in spurts. The months where we didn't move were the WORST but then the next month we'd move 3 - 4. Hang in there. There is a baby at the end but holy crap does it feel like an eternity.
ReplyDeleteI agree with one of your other comments. Maths doesn't take into account that anything could happen. Hoping for the best!
ReplyDeleteI am doing the same math exercise on our end with both our domestic and international adoptions. We are also MONTHS out at this rate for our domestic adoption (same agency as you, in the pool in April 2009) and YEARS and YEARS out for China. When I do the math for China (I have a whole spreadsheet) based on the trend over the past almost three years, it will be ANOTHER 10 years for our baby to come home!!! No one likes it when I say that, yes things can always change, but we only have trend data to go on. In light of that, I am so glad we decided to look into domestic adoption when we did or I think I would be lost. I just keep telling myself that it WILL happen and I make an effort to enjoy the here and now which really is pretty great (sometimes easier said than done I know). Hang in there!
ReplyDeleteClaire - OMG, that's just depressing. I know it's based on trends but that's gotta be tough to stomach. A friend of mine decided to adopt from China and the wait they were quoted literally doubled in the months it took for them to get the dossier and all the paperwork together. They've been told at least 5-6 years at this point.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your friend's LID (log in date)? Ours is Oct 17 2007 and seriously, I will be thrilled if it is only another 5 years from now (total of 7 1/2 years wait). Right now they are matching the LIDs from mid-April 2006 which may seem like they are not that far from Oct 2007, but it took about three years for them to move through 5 months (in June 2007 they were matching LIDs from mid November) so at that rate...well, you can do the math... I do think it could speed up after they get through May 2007 LIDs (there was a change in policy then so fewer people logged in after that) but it will take years to even get there and even then who knows. TMI I know. I am definitely an analytical type (I think you can relate) sometimes overly so, and have lots of info swirling in my head. Does your friend know about chinaadopttalk.com?
ReplyDeleteoh my lord, that math sucks, geochick. it is really hard to look at it like that. what the hell are you supposed to do, having sunk so much into that agency?? maybe there is another path.... i just don't have any answers, but my heart is with you.
ReplyDeleteGreat post! The wait can be intolerable, and not knowing for how long a wait you're in for just makes it so much worse.
ReplyDeleteHang in there!
(Arrived here from the Crème de la Crème list)
Ugh. Math can be very hard to take sometimes. I arrived here from the creme de la creme and just peeked ahead to now, to discover that you are very good at math. I hope that the wait doesn't last too much longer.
ReplyDelete